The Biggest Science Scandal Ever!

By necessity, climate change denial depends on steady sources of disinformation, and in this time of the 24 hour news cycle, there are many people more than willing to provide it.

From my commentary of this past January, Facts vs. Opinions:

“Some sources have been accused of providing substantiation that turns out to have been opinion pieces themselves. They are offering an argument for or against something that is not based on facts, but because they are citing a ‘source’ they appear to be providing verification.”

Examples of this occurred during recent airings on Fox News of the programs “Outnumbered” and “The Five”. On “Outnumbered”, panelist Lisa Kennedy asked the show’s guest: “What about the Telegraph report that shows the original data versus the published data? There was a great disparity because they lied about the actual data until someone went back to these weather stations in South America and Antarctica and thought, ‘Hmm, maybe something is amiss here?’ And they realized there is a scandalous discrepancy in what we have been sold!”

On “The Five”, Dana Perino said the White House is “actually kind of lucky that we don’t cover climate change as much as we should. Because yesterday, it was reported that the temperature readings have been fabricated and it’s all blowing up in their faces.”

They were both referring to a recent opinion piece by Christopher Booker in the Telegraph, a right-wing British newspaper. The headline was “The fiddling with temperature data is the biggest science scandal ever”, with the subtitle “New data shows that the “vanishing” of polar ice is not the result of runaway global warming”. It was not, as Kennedy claimed, a report.

In the piece, Booker wrote: “Two weeks ago …I wrote about Paul Homewood, who, on his Notalotofpeopleknowthat blog, had checked the published temperature graphs for three weather stations in Paraguay against the temperatures that had originally been recorded. In each instance, the actual trend of 60 years of data had been dramatically reversed, so that a cooling trend was changed to one that showed a marked warming. “This was only the latest of many examples of a practice long recognised by expert observers around the world – one that raises an ever larger question mark over the entire official surface-temperature record.”

What Fox News failed to do was some simple fact checking. The source for their comments was an opinion piece, which itself was using a blog for a source. It doesn’t appear that they spent any time vetting Booker or Homewood. And it certainly doesn’t appear that Booker did any vetting either. So what was Homewood talking about, that Booker so willingly chose to advance in his opinion piece?

Brad Friedman, writing in Salon on February 19:

“Politifact- which is not always a reliable source for news itself- decided to take a look at Perino’s version of the claim. In this case, they got it right and declared Perino’s assertion as a ‘Pants-on-Fire Lie’.

“The ‘controversy’ comes from adjustments made to the stream of raw data from thousands of land- and sea-based weather stations around the globe in order to keep them consistent, so that an apples-to-apples comparison of temperatures can be made over time, even as the location of weather stations- and the technology used since the mid-1800s to measure those temperatures-changes.

“‘For instance,’ Politifact explains, ‘local officials might move a station from a valley to a nearby hilltop. They might change the time of day when they record their measurements from sunrise to sunset. They might change the kind of thermometer they use. In the ocean, the practice once was to haul up a bucket of water. Later, the standard practice was to measure the temperature from the engine’s intake valve.’

“‘Researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) must then make adjustments to some of those raw temps ‘to account for the human factors that would skew the data regardless of what happened with actual temperatures.’

“‘The temperature records are based on weather station data. But people didn’t expect the data to be used for monitoring long-term climate change when they started collecting it,’ the University of York’s Dr. Kevin Cowtan explained in a video debunking the first misleading Telegraph article on this a few weeks ago. ‘It was for recording the weather, hence the name weather station. As a result they weren’t always very careful about changes to the instruments or their usage. When we change an instrument we have to recalibrate to ensure the new instrument gives the same readings as the old one. The original weather station operators didn’t always do this. So NOAA have to do a retrospective calibration by comparing nearby weather stations.’”

The Salon article continues:

“So, yes, Homewood has ‘busted’ NOAA scientists making adjustments to their raw data in a number of locations. The problem, however, is that when all such adjustments are examined, the changes actually lower global temperatures trends overall.

“The issue is perhaps best described in the Politifact piece by Zeke Hausfather, a data scientist with Berkley Earth, a group of researchers that have been funded in the past by the climate-denying Koch brothers (which is a point not noted by Politifact). Hausfather says the data cited by Homewood have been cherry-picked in order to seed doubt in climate change science…

“‘(They) look through all those thousands of stations, find a few that show big adjustments, and tell everyone that they are evidence of fraud,’ Hausfather said. ‘You will rarely see them pick out stations like Reno, Paris, London, Tokyo, or many others where the adjustments dramatically lower the warming trend.’

“Hausfather and his colleagues traced how the adjustment methods changed the temperature data differently around the world since 1850. In the United States, with about 5 percent of Earth’s land area, the official data file raised temperatures compared to the original readings. But the same methods lowered the data records in Africa, and for all land-based readings taken together, the adjustments basically made no change at all. With ocean temperature trends, the efforts to compensate for the human factor lower the numbers dramatically.

“‘The net effect of adjustments is to actually reduce the amount of global warming we’ve observed since 1880 by about 20 percent,’ Hausfather said. ‘Folks skeptical of temperature adjustments are welcome not to use them if they’d like, but you end up with more global warming, not less.’”

In a related matter, much has been recently been written about a scientist frequently quoted by climate change deniers, Dr. Wei-Hock “Willie” Soon. A cursory internet search will quickly reveal his role in the denial space. What is particularly revealing are his funding sources. Readers of my commentaries on climate change denial will recognize them. And Soon’s degree is in aerospace engineering- he is not a trained climate scientist. In my earlier commentary about climate change denial, I wrote about a Yale study that concluded that “because of their scientific backgrounds, [engineers] may have an inflated sense of their understanding about climate science, and thus draw incorrect conclusions that conform to their ideological biases.”

The problem, as always, is that the disinformation is put out there to a willing audience, and the inevitable fact checking and corrections may or may not also be heard by that same audience. And even when told that nearly 90% of climate science experts agree that climate change is caused by humans, one-half of Americans disagree.

In a Washington Post article by Terrence McCoy about Dr. Soon, Feb. 23:

“‘Ideological filters’ can explain this phenomenon, wrote academic Andrew J. Hoffman in the Stanford Social Innovation Review. The debate over climate change isn’t a debate over the science, which was decided years ago. It’s a debate ‘over culture, world views and ideology,’ Hoffman argued. And the ‘innate desire to maintain a consistency in beliefs’ means that we ‘refute views or arguments that are contrary to those beliefs.’”

Bottom line: a climate change-denying blogger in the UK looks at adjustments to temperature readings at weather stations and wrongly concludes that the result showed increased temperatures. His blog becomes a “source” for another climate change denier, who in turn becomes a “source” for “news” purveyors and entertainers on the right. In actuality, the adjustments show an overall decrease, but that wouldn’t fit in with the disinformation agenda in place at Fox, and unfortunately heard by its audience.

D. Norman

Autism- A Closer Look

Among the many reasons that some parents refuse to vaccinate their children, the most prevalent is the mistaken connection with autism. 

The subject of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a complex one. Many questions have arisen in recent years:

- is autism truly on the rise, or is there simply a growing awareness of the condition?

- if it is actually on the rise, is that due to the definition of autism being expanded?

and obviously, what is causing it?

An Overview

WebMD recently published a comprehensive report written by KathleenDoheny and reviewed by Louise Chang,MD, which attempted to answer these questions.

“The number of children diagnosed with autism or related disorders has grown at what many call an alarming rate. In the 1970s and 1980s, about one out of every 2,000 children had autism. Today, the CDC estimates that one in 150 8-year-olds in the U.S. has an autism spectrum disorder, or ASD. This expanded definition refers not only to autism but also to a collection of brain development disorders such as Asperger's syndrome and a condition known as pervasive developmental disorder -- not otherwise specified (PDD-NOS). Though all the disorders share some symptoms, they are different in other ways, including the timeline of symptoms and the severity, according to the CDC.

“‘The debate about whether the reported increase in autism is affected by factors such as more awareness misses the point’, says Isaac Pessah, PhD, a professor of toxicology, director of the Center for Children's Environmental Health Sciences, and a member of the MIND Institute at the University of California Davis. Rather than argue about whether the increase is because of some children being reclassified or other factors, he says, ‘We need to understand why it's one in 150.’”

“'There won't be one single explanation,’' says Marvin Natowicz, MD, PhD, a medical geneticist and vice chairman of the Genomic Medicine Institute at the Cleveland Clinic. ‘There's been a lot of progress in the last few years in terms of understanding the causes of autism, We know a lot more than we did.’ Still, he says, research has a long way to go. ‘One number you see often is that about 10% of those with autism have a definitive diagnosis, a causative condition.’ The other 90% of cases are still a puzzle to the experts.

“Often, a child with autism will have a co-existing problem, such as a seizure disorder, depression, anxiety, or gastrointestinal or other health problems. At least 60 different disorders -- genetic, metabolic, and neurologic -- have been associated with autism, according to a report published in The New England Journal of Medicine. On one point most agree: A combination of genetics and environmental factors may play a role. Scientists are looking at both areas.

“A variety of environmental triggers is under investigation as a cause or contributing factor to the development of ASD, especially in a genetically vulnerable child. Exposure to pesticides during pregnancy may boost risk. In a study published in Environmental Health Perspectives,researchers compared 465 children diagnosed with ASD with nearly 7,000 children without the diagnosis, noting whether the mothers lived near agricultural areas using pesticides. The risk of having ASD increased with the poundage of pesticides applied and with the proximity of the women's homes to the fields.

“Another toxin to the brain is mercury in its organic form. But according to a report published in Pediatrics, there is no evidence that children with autism in the U.S. have increased mercury concentrations or environmental exposures. Though many parents of children with ASD believe their child's condition was caused by vaccines that used to contain thimerosal (a mercury-containing preservative), the Institute of Medicine concludes there is no causal association.

“Pessah and other researchers are focusing on how the interaction of genes and the environment play a role in autism. Among the findings so far, he says, is that the immune system functioning of the mother may play a role in the child's later development of autism.

“In another study, the UC Davis team found that levels of leptin, a hormone that plays a role in metabolism and weight, was much higher in children with autism than in normally developing children, especially if their autism was early in onset.

“Even if some environmental exposures or other findings do stand out, he says, we are going to have to resist the temptation to say, 'This is it’, Newschaffer says. Natowitz of Cleveland Clinic agrees. ‘There won't be one single explanation.’"

The Importance of “Good” Gut Bacteria

The gastrointestinal connection to autism appears over and over in the literature. The importance of a proper balance and quantity of “good” gut bacteria in the intestines of children is thought to be an important factor. 

In an article in Autism Speaks in July of 2013, an important study was discussed:

“The study appears today in the journal PLOS ONE. Rosa Krajmalnik-Brown and Jin Gyoon Park, of Arizona State University’s Biodesign Institute, led the investigation.

Researchers using high-tech DNA analysis found that children with autism have fewer kinds of intestinal bacteria than do children without autism. However, this reduced “biodiversity” did not relate to the severity of gastrointestinal problems.

“Among children with autism, GI problems such as constipation and gut pain are common. Some have suspected that imbalances in intestinal bacterial are to blame. Other research has suggested that problematic gut bacteria might contribute to autism symptoms by triggering inflammation that reaches the brain. Considerable research has shown that intestinal bacteria play important roles in both digestion and regulation of the immune system in all persons.

“The researchers found significantly decreased microbial diversity (fewer types of bacteria) in the children with autism. However, they were  surprised to find no link between this lowered diversity and the severity of GI symptoms. Nor did they find links to differences in the children’s diets. Among the types of bacteria reduced in those with autism, Prevotella was the most conspicuous. It occurred only in very low levels in the children with autism. By contrast, it was common in those not affected by autism – who altogether had more diverse and robust communities of intestinal bacteria.”

Then, on Oct 22, 2014, Autism Speaks announced that they had “selected two major research projects – one focused on intestinal bacteria, the other on chronic constipation – to advance understanding of autism’s gut-brain connection. Funding for the studies, each spanning three years, will total more than $2.3 million.

“‘Listening to our parents, we hear how often autism and GI problems can go hand in hand,’  says Autism Speaks Chief Science Officer Rob Ring. ‘While we now know that autism and gastrointestinal problems frequently co-occur, improving our understanding of the underlying biology becomes essential for developing needed treatments.’”

Are Antibiotics Altering Gut Bacteria?

Might the indiscriminate use of antibiotics be a reason for the lack of quantity and diversity of the gut bacteria? James B. Adams of Arizona State University was part of a team of researchers that addressed this and other issues. The study was published in BioMed Central in March of 2011. Excerpts from the report:

“… a study by our group of 51 children with ASD compared to 40 typical controls ages 3-15 found that 63% of children with autism were reported to have moderate or severe chronic diarrhea and/or constipation, vs. 2% of the control children. In summary, these studies demonstrate that GI symptoms are common in autism.

“The cause of these GI problems is unclear, but it appears to partly relate to abnormal gut flora and possibly to the excessive use of oral antibiotics which can alter gut flora. Several studies by our group and others have reported significantly higher oral antibiotic use in children with autism vs. typical children. 

“Oral antibiotics were primarily used for treating otitis media (ear infections), which may suggest an impaired immune system. Commonly used oral antibiotics eliminate almost all of the normal gut microbiota, which play an important role in the breakdown of plant polysaccharides, promoting gastrointestinal motility, maintaining water balance, producing some vitamins, and competing against pathogenic bacteria. Loss of normal gut flora can result in the overgrowth of pathogenic flora, which can in turn cause constipation and other problems.” 

The Role of Glyphosate (Roundup) in Altering Gut Bacteria

If the gut bacteria/autism link can be accepted as at least likely, then any agent, including antibiotics, that alters gut bacteria should be examined more closely. 

The subject of genetically modified organisms (GMO) warrants an extensive commentary of its own. But due to their potential for adversely affecting the balance of gut bacteria, I believe that an overview is in order. 

The active ingredient in Roundup, a Monsanto herbicide, is glyphosate. In brief, glyphosate kills plants by interfering with the shikimate pathway in plants, by inhibiting the enzyme EPSP. Genetically modified crops are designed to overcome that inhibition. 

The shikimate pathway is a seven step metabolic route used by bacteria, fungi, algae, parasites, and plants for the biosynthesis of aromatic amino acids (phenylalanine, tyrosine, and tryptophan). This pathway is not found in animals; therefore, phenylalanine and tryptophan represent essential amino acids that must be obtained from the animal's diet.

Monsanto’s basis for its safety claims for Roundup is that the shikimate pathway does not exist in animals and humans. But since it does exist in bacteria, it matters if their various forms are affected differently. Unfortunately the beneficial ones such as the forms of enterococcus, bifidobacterium and lactobacillus are susceptible to glyphosate. Pathogenic bacteria such as the various forms of salmonella and clostridium are highly resistant. This leads to an inevitable imbalance of gut bacteria, thereby contributing to the GI problems suspected of being a cause of autism.

Experts in the field of ASD research are clear that there are many possible causes for autism, but one of them is not vaccinations. Vaccines have not contained mercury since 1999, and many such as MMR, Polio, and HPV (Gardasil) never contained it. They also realize that there is probably not one clear answer, and much more research needs to be done.

Concerned parents, whether or not they have children with autism, need to beware of the effects of antibiotics. They would do well to research the subject of gut bacteria. Probiotics show promise, and may eventually prove to be a viable option for treatment.

D. Norman

Anti-Vaxxers - The New Conscientious Objectors?

In the war against infectious diseases, vaccines have been indispensable.

In April of 2014, UNICEF provided some significant statistics concerning the impact of vaccinations worldwide. Regarding polio: “In 1988, there were 350,000 cases of polio around the world. Today there are fewer than 500. This year, India eradicated the disease- one of the world’s great public health achievements.”

UNICEF provided startling numbers of annual worldwide deaths due to diseases easily prevented by vaccines:

• whooping cough- 195,000
• measles- 118,000
• rotavirus- 453,000
• pneumococcal disease- 476,000
• tetanus- 60,000
• haemophilus influenzae type B- 199,000

From an article in the Houston Chronicle, September 19, 2014:

“Vaccine fact: Vaccines save lives. We're not saying vaccines are risk-free, but the ratio of serious adverse reactions to beneficial effect is about 1 to 40,000.

“Before pertussis (whooping cough) vaccines were available in the 1940s, an estimated 200,000 children were infected annually, and 9,000 died. Before there was a measles vaccine, up to 4 million Americans a year were infected; 1,000 suffered brain damage or hearing loss, and 450 died. Diphtheria killed 15,000 Americans in one year (1921) before there was a vaccine. During a pre-vaccine rubella (German measles) outbreak in the 1960s, 2,000 babies died and 11,000 pregnant women had miscarriages.”

In the American Journal of Public Health, University of Pennsylvania School of Nursing researcher Alison M. Buttenheim, PhD, MBA had the following to say:

“Vaccines are one of the great public health achievements of the last couple of centuries… They protect us from diseases that used to routinely kill hundreds of thousands of children in the United States and still kill hundreds of thousands globally. It's not just important for a child to be vaccinated, it's important at a population level to have high rates of coverage.

“People who cannot get immunizations because of allergies or compromised immune systems rely on ‘herd immunity,’ the protection they get from a disease when the rest of the population is immunized or immune, explained Dr. Buttenheim. If a high number of children go intentionally unvaccinated because of personal belief exemptions, herd immunity is compromised, she said, giving a disease the chance to spread rapidly.’

Parents choose to not vaccinate their children for a myriad of reasons. Last month, Dr. Vincent Iannelli, M.D. provided a guide to fifty common myths about vaccinations, all which have been disproven. The article is in the About Health website.

Obtaining exemptions have not been that difficult to get. Nineteen states offer essentially “just say no” personal exemptions, and 29 more offer religious exemptions with varying requirements. Mississippi and West Virginia have stricter “medical reasons only” exemptions, and haven’t had an outbreak in the last seven years.

With the current outbreak of measles originating from Disneyland, there is beginning to be a re-examination of the vaccination exemption. There is a questioning of whether a person’s rights or beliefs in this case can be allowed to put others at risk.

In the military, in times of conscription, people had the option to claim conscientious objector status. During World War II, all registrants were sent a questionnaire covering basic facts about their identification, physical condition, history and also provided a checkoff to indicate opposition to military service because of religious training or belief. Men marking the latter option received a detailed form in which they had to explain the basis for their objection.

Currently in the U.S., military personnel who come to a conviction of conscientious objection during their tour of duty must appear in front of a panel of experts, which consists of psychiatrists, military chaplains and officers. They must submit to questions, in order for the panel to determine the validity of the claims.

In my view, those opposed to vaccinations are not unlike conscientious objectors. They are choosing not to participate in the war against preventable infectious diseases. They are refusing to use a weapon that has been proven safe and effective. The basis for their beliefs should be vigorously challenged. They should not be simply allowed to opt out.

D. Norman

The NRA in Pennsylvania - Tampering With the Legislative Process

This is not an anti-gun or anti-Second Amendment screed. It is simply an account of a recent example of the ability of the National Rifle Association (NRA) to influence state and local legislation.

In the State of Pennsylvania, many local municipalities have had ordinances on their books relating to guns and gun ownership. They were written to deal with common sense situations, the most notable being the “lost or stolen” ordinances - local laws requiring gun owners to notify police when a firearm goes missing.

Pennsylvania state law has prohibited local officials from passing their own gun laws since 1974. But many municipalities have had rules that, for example, banned firearms from public property as well as the lost or stolen ordinances.

Late last year, Act 192 was passed, effectively giving the NRA the opportunity to overturn these measures. The process surrounding the enactment of the bill is most curious. The timeline went like this:

- January 10, 2013 - Pennsylvania House Bill 80 is referred to the Judiciary Committee.

It reads: “ Amending Title 18 (Crimes and Offenses) of the Pennsylvania Consolidated Statutes, defining the offense of theft of secondary metal; and prescribing penalties.

- Through the first half of 2013, H.B. 80 wended its way through the usual process, spending time being reviewed by the Rules Committee and Appropriations Committee and then back to the Judiciary Committee on June 28.

- Nothing more was done to the bill for a year until June 24, 2014. It was reported as amended, but was still a measure penalizing the theft of metals like copper and aluminum.

- It was again amended on October 6, still remaining a theft of metals bill.

- October 15, 2014 - H. B. 80 is amended to add: “and, in firearms and other dangerous articles, further providing for Pennsylvania State Police and for limitation on the regulation of firearms and ammunition.”

- November 4, 2014 - Republican Pennsylvania governor Tom Corbett loses to Democrat Tom Wolf in the general election, with 45% of the vote to 55% for Wolf.

- Nov. 5, 2014 - H.B. 80 signed in House.

- Nov. 6, 2014 - H.B. 80 signed in Senate.

- Nov. 6, 2014 - H.B. 80 presented to Governor Corbett.

- Nov. 6, 2014 - H.B. 80 approved by Governor Corbett, becoming Act 192.

It has been reported that in his haste to sign the bill, Governor Corbett signed the wrong version and had to be called back for a second signing.

From a story on January 29th in The Daily Beast:

“The NRA quickly used its newfound legal power, suing a number of municipalities and threatening others to get them to back down. The amendment as written says an organization does not need what’s known as “standing”—in other words, the NRA doesn’t have to prove someone has been harmed by a gun safety law. It can just outright sue, and if it wins, the city or town has to pay the group’s legal expenses. But there’s no risk to the NRA; if it loses, it doesn’t pay the winning side’s legal expenses.

“Ed Foley, the mayor of Jenkintown, a borough in the Philadelphia suburbs, told the Daily Beast that the NRA forced him ‘to choose between public safety and financial solvency.’ Foley describes Jenkintown on his Twitter account as ‘0.6 square miles of the best place to live, dine, shop, and raise a family.’ With a population of 4,500 and a budget of $6.5 million, ‘We can’t afford to defend a law suit even if we win it, and if we lose, we have to pay their legal fees. That’s a form of blackmail,’ he says, ‘or maybe extortion is a better word.’

“Under the threat of a lawsuit brought by the NRA, an ordinance in place since 2010 requiring Jenkintown residents to report lost or stolen firearms at the police station was rescinded in a public meeting. ’It was a hold-your-nose vote,’ says Foley. ‘It’s such an innocuous law, and it doesn’t do anything to restrict anybody’s right to have a gun. I don’t know why the NRA isn’t a bigger supporter of the police. The police want the law.’

“Mayor Richard Gray of Lancaster, a city of some 60,000 known for its distinctive Amish population, is also determined to protect its requirement that lost or stolen firearms are reported to the police within 72 hours. ‘The NRA is trying to bully smaller communities,’ Gray told the Beast.  ‘I learned in junior high school the one way to deal with a bully is to stand up to him, so we’re not backing down. And if they lose, over a hundred communities will pass the same law. I guarantee it.’”

It was reported in December in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that other Pennsylvania municipalities have begun the process of removing their ordinances: Homestead, West Mifflin, White Oak, Castle Shannon, Duquesne, Liberty, Munhall and Wilkinsburg, motivated by the fear of litigation prompted by Act 192.

The cities of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Lancaster are challenging the law’s constitutionality before the Commonwealth Court, based on Pennsylvania law dictating that amendments to laws must be germane to the intent of the original bill.

What happened to House Bill 80 (Act 192) between October 6, when it was a secondary metals bill, and October 15 when, with a hastily added amendment, it also became a bill empowering the NRA to sue municipalities for enacting gun laws? In the final weeks of the gubernatorial election, was the handwriting on the wall regarding the outcome?

The NRA, in concert with ALEC, the American Legislative Exchange Council, regularly insert themselves into the legislative process at the State and local level. It happened with impunity in Pennsylvania in this most recent example, and it happens across the country. So very long ago in my Civics classes, I don’t remember learning that it was done this way.

D. Norman