Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed
with a 50-48 vote, with only 44% of the country’s population represented by the winning
votes:
“…the reality that a
majority of the country’s population is represented by just 18 senators …is
driving concerns about the Senate’s ability to function as a representative
body in a changing America.”
Two of the yes votes
to confirm Kavanaugh came from the two Senators from Wyoming. As of July 1,
2018, Wyoming had a estimated population of 577,737, which is .17% of the total
in the U.S. Due to its small population size, Wyoming is only able to seat one
person in the U.S. House of Representatives, but is still able to seat two
Senators.
Two of the no votes
came from the two Senators from California. As of July 1, 2018, California’s
population was estimated to be 39,557,045 - 12% of the country, which enables
it to seat 53 members in the House.
North and South
Dakota, with a combined population of .50% of the country’s total, provided
three yes votes for Kavanaugh. The fourth vote cast by Democrat Heidi Heitkamp
was a no. (A month later, Heitkamp lost to Republican Kevin Cramer in the
mid-term elections.)
What is becoming
increasingly clear is that control of politics in this country is in the hands
of rural America: “Rural America, even as it laments its economic
weakness, retains vastly disproportionate electoral strength. Rural voters were
able to nudge Donald J. Trump to power despite Hillary Clinton’s large margins
in cities like New York. In a House of Representatives that structurally
disadvantages Democrats because of their tight urban clustering, rural voters
helped Republicans hold their cushion. In the Senate, the least populous states
are now more overrepresented than ever before. And the growing unity of rural
Americans as a voting bloc has converted the rural bias in national politics
into a potent Republican advantage.”
“…Today, states
containing just 17 percent of the American population, a historic low, can
theoretically elect a Senate majority…”
Back in January of
2016, Mikhail Fishman, editor-in-chief of the Moscow Times, wrote:
“…[Vladimir] Putin is always keen to emphasize flaws in the American democracy,
usually pointing out that George H. Bush won the presidency in 2000 despite
losing the popular vote. In doing so, he seems to be sending a message to his
nation that rigged elections in Russia are somehow a similar phenomenon.” (Al
Gore garnered nearly a half million more “popular votes” than George Bush, but
lost by five Electoral Votes.)
Brett Kavanaugh was
nominated by a president who was elected in 2016 with 46.1% of the popular
vote. His opponent garnered 48.5%, with a plurality of 2,868,686 votes. To put
that number in perspective, there are 15 states with smaller total populations.
The win was due to the Electoral College, an institution which exists nowhere
else in the world, and is the reason we talk about the “popular vote”, a term
that exists nowhere else in the world.
The make up of this
body, arrived at by the founders during the time of the Constitutional
Convention, has evolved over time and now is comprised of 538 electors. The
number is the combined total of 435 House members plus the 100 Senators plus 3
for the District of Columbia. A majority of 270 is needed to win the
presidency.
The House of
Representatives was envisioned by the founding fathers to
be a population-based body, while the Senate would be state-based. In the words
of James Madison in Federalist No. 39, “The House of Representatives, like that
of one branch at least of all the State legislatures, is elected immediately by
the great body of the people. The Senate, like the present Congress, and the
Senate of Maryland, derives its appointment indirectly from the people.”
But, as it has
been pointed out, the
membership of the House has not changed to keep pace with the population growth
of the country. “…in response to the 1910 Census, [Congress] expanded the House
to a total of 435 seats — to represent 92.2 million people. In the ensuing 107
years, the size of the House has remained unchanged, even as the nation’s
population has swelled to well over 300 million — three-and-a-half times what
it was in 1910. …As a result, the average member of the U.S. House of
Representatives today ‘represents’ somewhere north of 747,000 people."
Further: “Although
it’s not the only way to make our political branches (and, through them, our
judges) more representative, changing the size of the House of Representatives
— from its current total of 435 seats to 650 seats, or one for every 500,000 constituents
— would make that body far more reflective of the country at large; would
dramatically affect presidential elections; and, perhaps alone among all of
these proposed reforms, would most be in keeping with the wishes of the
Constitution’s drafters.”
If the House were to
be increased to 650 seats, California’s delegation would increase from 53 to
79, while Wyoming’s would remain unchanged. The Dakotas would remain unchanged
as well. New York would send 39 members to the House, up from 27. Importantly, the
ability of these members, in every affected state, to better represent their
constituents would improve dramatically.
As illustrated above
by the examples of state-based (Senate) voting to confirm a Supreme Court
justice, and how it worked against the wishes of the majority of the
population, the Electoral College can have a similar impact and result in
much dissatisfaction.
“Today, in every state except Nebraska and Maine, whichever candidate wins the
most votes in a state wins all the electors from that state, no matter what the
margin of victory. Just look at the impact this system had on the 2016 race:
Donald Trump won Pennsylvania and Florida by a combined margin of about 200,000
votes to earn 49 electoral votes. Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, won Massachusetts
by almost a million votes but earned only 11 electoral votes. The
winner-take-all electoral system explains why one candidate can get more votes
nationwide while a different candidate wins in the Electoral College.”
The discontent
surrounding the feelings of being underrepresented has led to efforts to split up the states with large populations. Parts of California, for
example, were upset that their two Senate votes were cast to oppose Kavanaugh.
“Today’s Californians would go from being the most underrepresented by the Senate
to slightly overrepresented. The people of Jefferson would probably become
America’s most overrepresented citizens in terms of swing-state clout — just
949,000 people in possession of two competitive Senate seats, a competitive
House seat and three competitive electoral votes.”
Why did it happen that
the American people had to accept this lack of representation? And can anything
be done to correct it? If, in some cases, they are considering splitting up
their states, what would rule out the possibility of their encouraging the
abolishment of the Electoral College? The majority of people actually favor going
to the “popular vote”. I earlier covered how increasing the size of the House
would be another possibility. As for the Senate, there has been talk of
statehood for Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia.
Partisanship will
always be a factor, and at present one party benefits from maintaining the
status quo, both in the Senate and Electoral College. Citizens of the U.S. that
hunger for better representation in our democracy need to demand that party
politics take a back seat to the efforts for constructive change.
D. Norman